Europe wants autonomy. These days, that sounds about as self-evident as ‘we need to become more sustainable’ or ‘we need to digitise’. But our continent has a few major, persistent problems that stand in the way of sovereignty. To begin with, we are missing crucial raw materials. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have made it painfully clear how dependent we are on gas from regions that exploit our vulnerability. A blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and the system creaks and groans on all sides. Should we open the Groningen gas tap again after all, or get over our aversion to the 1980s and build nuclear power plants?
At the same time, Europe risks losing its industrial power. Production has been shifting for years to countries with lower wages, cheaper energy, and better access to raw materials. Companies look rationally at costs and certainty, and often end up outside Europe. Because energy costs in the US and China will remain lower than here for a very long time. Meanwhile, other regions dominate value chains that are decisive for our future. Europe may boast about its green agenda, but the fact is that it is almost entirely dependent on China for, among other things, solar panels, inverters, and EV batteries.
And then there is the military reality. Since WWII, Europe has relied heavily on NATO and thus on the United States. The turnaround seems to have come, but defence spending has been neglected for decades. With the muscle-flexing from the White House and in a world where hard power is once again the determining factor, our old, familiar economic strength is no longer enough. Without our own military capability, we cannot protect our interests, let alone enforce them.
Those three problems are directly related. Without raw materials, there is no industry. Without industry, there is no military capacity. Without military power, there is no access to raw materials. It is one. And that means that standalone solutions don’t work. Nor is simply opening our wallets the only option, assuming our pockets are even deep enough for the massive investments required. Europe can barely afford autonomy financially, but no autonomy even less. Because if we don’t solve it, structural decline will follow.
What’s needed is a fundamentally different way of looking at and managing. Governments will need to invest more actively and more specific in sectors that really matter: energy, industry, and defence. And not only with subsidies, but also by organising demand. With big, long-term contracts, we can create markets that do not arise on their own. But if we subsequently let the market do its work, every investment programme still leaks out to producers outside Europe. In that case, we are effectively subsidising our own dependence, because for a great many products, it will remain true for the time being that they are cheaper elsewhere. You have to force the issue of choosing ‘made in Europe’, and that costs money.
Ultimately, it comes down to choices we have put off for a long time. What do we prioritise: certainty or price, resilience or efficiency, short term or long term? You can’t do everything at once. Autonomy means choosing, and accepting that there is a price tag attached to it.
